Market-Implied Price Odds
PREDICTION MARKETS · LIVE KALSHI BTC/ETH YEAR-END LADDER
See what a live, regulated prediction market implies about BTC/ETH's year-end price — median, mode, and odds at any real price boundary.
Live from Kalshi's BTC year-end price ladder — a set of mutually-exclusive markets settling against CF Benchmarks' index. Bars are normalized so they sum to 100%; the raw sum before normalizing is the vig (shown on the right).
Pick a coin to see what the market thinks
What does "market-implied" mean here?
Kalshi runs a full ladder of mutually-exclusive markets on where BTC and ETH will be at year-end — "$95,000 to $99,999.99", "$100,000 to $104,999.99", and so on, up to an open-ended top bucket. Each bucket has its own live price. Read together, those prices are the market's own probability distribution for year-end price — not our estimate, not a model, just what people are actually willing to pay for each outcome right now.
The formulas
- bucketProbability = bucketMidPrice / sum(all bucket mid prices)
- vig = (sum(all bucket mid prices) − 1) × 100
- medianBucket = the bucket where cumulative probability first reaches 50%
- P(at/above X) = sum of probabilityPct for every bucket whose floor ≥ X
"At/above X" only uses real bucket boundaries — if you pick a price that falls inside a bucket rather than exactly on its edge, this snaps down to that bucket's own floor instead of guessing how probability is spread inside it. No interpolation, no invented curve-fitting — every number here traces back to one live price.
Why no expected value?
The top and bottom buckets are open-ended ("$150,000 or above", "$19,999.99 or below") — an expected value needs a single representative point for those buckets, and there isn't a sourced number for that. We could invent one (the bucket floor, 1.2× the floor, whatever), but that would be exactly the kind of unsourced composite the site doesn't ship. Median and mode bucket don't have this problem — they only need to know which bucket, not a specific number inside it.
Where to go next
Want one specific bucket's price converted into odds format? Odds Converter. Think the market's price is wrong and want to size a bet on that view? Edge Sizer.
Use via API or MCP
Available as a deterministic API call — useful for agents that need the market's live implied odds for a price threshold, not a single spot price.
Is this a price prediction?
No — it's a read of what a live, regulated market is currently pricing, not a forecast we're making. Prediction markets can be wrong, and thin liquidity in far-out-of-the-money buckets can distort their prices.
Why does it snap my threshold to a bucket boundary instead of the exact price I typed?
Kalshi's buckets are the only real, sourced boundaries. Anything in between would need us to assume how probability is spread inside a $2,500-$5,000 (or similar) bucket — an assumption this site doesn't make. Snapping down to the nearest real boundary keeps every number traceable to an actual live price.
What does the "vig" number mean here?
It's the amount by which all the bucket prices, added together, exceed 100% — the exchange's built-in edge across the whole ladder. A few percent is normal and doesn't materially distort the shape of the distribution.
Why only BTC and ETH?
Those are the two coins with a confirmed, complete, full-range year-end ladder on Kalshi today. Other coins have crypto markets too, but not this specific full-coverage bucket structure — we only add a coin once its ladder is verified complete.
How often do these prices update?
Live, cached for 30 seconds server-side to avoid hammering Kalshi's API on every page load — refresh the page for a newer read.